March Madness: How Memphis basketball could make history − good or bad − at AAC tournament

Memphis basketball will make history one way or another this week at the AAC tournament.

The Tigers, in order to guarantee themselves a March Madness spot, must repeat as tournament champs. If they're going to do that, they will have to win four games in consecutive days − which would be a first for an AAC team.

If Memphis does not get back to the NCAA tournament, it will become the first team in the Bart Torvik era (since 2008) to have a "Wins Above Bubble" rating as high as +3, as late as Jan. 15, to miss it. Wins Above Bubble is a statistic created by Torvik that "shows how many wins a team has compared to how many wins a hypothetical bubble team would have against that team's schedule," Torvik told me in January. Since 2008, 153 teams have been that good in "Wins Above Bubble" that deep into a season, and they've all made the NCAA tournament.

As it stands now, the Tigers (22-9, 11-7 AAC) − once ranked No. 10 in the AP Top 25 poll − are not even on most bracketologists' bubble. Only ESPN's Joe Lunardi even lists Memphis, but even he has them as the bottom team in his "next four out" category.

Hence why the AAC tournament is so critically important to the Tigers' NCAA tournament hopes. But there's reason for optimism for many as far as that goes. Despite the mercurial Tigers' largely disappointing season, they have as favorable a path to the title game as perhaps any team, avoiding FAU, SMU, North Texas, Tulane, Charlotte or Temple until the final day (if they get there).

Penny Hardaway and Co. will kick things off Thursday (1:30 p.m., ESPNU) against the winner of Wednesday's Wichita State-Rice game − two of the five worst teams in the AAC, in terms of record. Memphis swept the season series from Wichita State and lost at home to Rice (arguably the biggest reason why the Tigers are in their current predicament).

Should Memphis win Thursday, it will face UAB (2 p.m., ESPN2). The Tigers lost in Birmingham on Jan. 28 (three days before losing to Rice), then whipped the Blazers at FedExForum on March 3, digging out of a 22-point hole and winning 106-87. If Memphis advances to the semifinals on Saturday (2 p.m., ESPN2), it would face either league champs South Florida, Tulsa or East Carolina. The Tigers blew a 20-point, second-half lead against the Bulls and lost 74-73 on Jan. 18. They beat both Tulsa and ECU on the road earlier this season.

Here’s a look at Memphis' résumé as it gets set to begin the AAC tournament.

Memphis basketball’s résumé, NET ranking

NET ranking: 69

KenPom ranking: 71

KPI ranking: 50

BPI ranking: 72

Quad 1 record: 2-3

Quad 2 record: 4-4

Quad 3 record: 11-1

Quad 4 record: 5-1

Record vs. Joe Lunardi's projected field: 2-3

Record vs. KenPom top 50: 3-2

Record vs. KPI top 50: 4-1

Record vs. BPI top 50: 3-2

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.